Clinical and genetic prediction of lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation and its complications

Project: SFRN


  • Ludovic Trinquart (PI)


Framingham investigators published the first estimates of the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the community, which were reported at about 25%. In recently published data from Framingham, Dr. Lubitz, Trinquart, and Benjamin, recently published astonishing results that the lifetime risk of AF has increased to 37% at age 55 years. We further noted that the lifetime risk was markedly influenced by both clinical and genetic factors.Lifetime risk quantifies the absolute risk of developing a disease of interest over the life course. It provides an easy way to communicate future risk to individuals and may identify individuals at low short-term risk but high long-term of AF. Risk prediction models have been developed and validated for short-term AF risks. Such models are not available for the lifetime risk of AF. Further, little is known about the lifetime risk of other cardiac events in individuals with AF as compared to those without AF. In addition, AF, and heart failure, and stroke frequently occur together, but they do not occur in a predictable order.Hence, for our population project, we propose to develop and validate a prediction model for the lifetime risk of AF that integrates genetic predisposition and clinical risk factors. We will also examine individuals with AF to describe their lifetime risk of developing heart failure and stroke in relation to AF genetic and clinical risk factor burden. We will examine the probabilities of moving from one condition to the other among AF, heart failure, and stroke, and identify dynamic predictors. We will address these questions by using data from 3 US community-based longitudinal study of cardiovascular disease (Framingham Heart Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study). Finally, we will assess if using different formats to communicate the predicted risk of AF (e.g., 5-year or lifetime risk) influence the understanding and perception of individual risk by clinicians through an online survey.
Award amount$798,485.00
Award date07/01/2018
Program typeStrategically Focused Research Network
Award ID18SFRN34150007
Effective start/end date07/01/201806/30/2022